The Ideological Divergence of Political Independents
Pop-Indies vs Mod-Indies — Independents Who Make And Break The Political Model
Independent party affiliation status is not synonymous with moderation. An ideologically moderate individual is someone who endorses policies and finds merit in aspects from both major political parties’ platforms, at least somewhat equally.
Such individuals find themselves pulled from divergent ends of the political spectrum, never truly aligning with one specific party. However, this depiction does not hold true for a considerable number of those who identify as Independent.
There are two distinct ideological groups: those who maintain independence from the established parties while recognizing the need for effecting change through the conventional system, and then there are those who assert their independence not only from the parties but also from the entire political system and the elite figures who wield influence over it. I will refer to the former category as “Moderate Independents” (Mod-Indies) and the latter as “Populist Independents” (Pop-Indies).
Studies have consistently shown that Independents are often just as partisan as those who openly align with specific parties. I believe that the challenge lies in the expansive nature of the “Independent” category. This becomes evident when examining the data on leaning Independents (a significant majority of independents concede that their leanings are toward either the Republican or Democratic parties.)
Among those who claim to be Independent, a mere 7% of respondents maintain a steadfast detachment from the two major parties. Coincidentally, these individuals presumably represent the more extreme end of the Pop-Indie spectrum as well as the most ideologically moderate of the Mod-Indies.
For Pop-indies, while their ideological leanings might sway one way or the other, their overarching anti-establishment stance is not typically observed in Mod-Indies. For Mod-Indies, their ideological leanings are constantly shifting — they are never fully committed to one side even if they prefer an within-the-system and incremental approach.
Allow me to provide some examples to enhance clarity. Following the 2022 midterm elections, Arizona Senator Kristen Sinema departed from the Democratic Party and asserted her Independent status. Sinema’s affiliation with the Democrats dates back to 2012 when she first entered Congress.
Notably, Sinema aligned her vote with former President Trump around 50% of the time, tying the highest percentage among Democrats currently in office. Nevertheless, her voting alignment with President Biden was 100%.
Sinema epitomizes the quintessential Independent — a Mod-Indie — as she supports significant pieces of the Republican party — or strongly values bipartisanship — while predominantly gravitating towards the Democratic stance on several policy matters.
Another prominent example of a Mod-Indie is West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. Manchin had been a pivotal figure within the Democratic ranks, exercising considerable influence by delaying key initiatives like the Build Back Better Act. Despite the Democrats’ control of the House, Senate, and the Executive branch, Manchin’s reservations have prevented the passage of several significant measures.
Manchin’s voting alignment with President Biden is approximately 90% — lower than that of any other Democrat or Independent in Congress. Furthermore, his voting consistency with Trump’s positions is on par with Sinema’s, surpassing that of any other current Democratic officeholder. These two individuals seemingly operate within the realm of moderation, yet exhibit distinct Democratic leanings.
Defining the true identities of these Mod-Indies can be challenging due to a widespread desire for unity during recent political polarization and divided congresses. Senator Manchin, for instance, has earnestly embraced his image as a champion of moderation and bipartisanship. So, while generally voting with Democrats, he is willing to lose some left-leaning policies in favor of Republican support.
Now, let’s explore the other end of the spectrum of Independents: Pop-Indies. These individuals tend to be ultra-skeptical of political parties and the elites who lead them, often referred to as the establishment. Nevertheless, they are typically quite partisan in their own right.
It’s important to note that both sides of the political spectrum — while still distinct — have their examples of Pop-Indies. On the left, one of the most prominent figures is Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont. Sanders is often described as a progressive Democrat, yet Sanders has one of the lowest voting alignment percentages with President Biden among Democratic officeholders, excluding Joe Manchin.
Because Pop-Indies are highly critical of the establishment, they often opt for a more grassroots approach when it comes to shaping their policy positions and conducting their campaigns.
A prime example of this grassroots strategy can be seen in Sanders’ 2019 presidential run, where he received the majority of his campaign donations from individual supporters rather than large corporate contributions. In the second quarter of 2020, for example, approximately 85% of Sanders total campaign contributions came from grassroots donations and contributors gave an average of less than $15 each.
Sanders’s appeal and success can also be attributed significantly to his popularity among young voters. In January 2020, a staggering 40% of voters aged 18–29 favored Sanders over any other candidate.
Additionally, he garnered the support of approximately one-third of Hispanic voters and one-fourth of non-Hispanic, non-Black minority voters. These statistics underscore Sanders’ role as a quintessential representative of Pop-Indies on the left side of the political spectrum.
Unlike Mod-Indies, who genuinely embrace some aspects of the opposing party’s platform, Pop-Indies, like Sanders, are less inclined to do so. Sanders’ divergence from the Democratic Party does not stem from a public desire for bipartisanship — like Manchin — but rather from his belief that Democrats are not pushing far enough with their policies.
Sanders withholds his votes to push for more progressive reforms within the party’s agenda, rather than seeking compromises with Republicans — again, like Manchin.
Sanders, for instance, voted in alignment with President Trump’s positions only 16% of the time, one of the lowest rates in Congress. This pattern is consistent with other Pop-Indies, such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.
When competing against candidates like Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, Sanders notably advocated for progressive proposals such as Medicare-For-All, free college education, and a higher minimum wage, which contrasted with the liberal Democrats’ more incremental approach.
While the Tea Party faction, featuring figures like Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz, emerged during the Obama Administration and is often cited as an example of a sprouting right-leaning group of populists, one could make a strong case that Donald Trump represents the quintessential right-leaning Pop-Indie.
Donald Trump’s ideological journey has seen him shift between conservative and liberal positions throughout his life, driven by various factors such as political influences and shifts in party ideology since the 1970s. He has expressed support for pro-choice policies and single-payer healthcare, while also championing the Iraq War and fueling the “birther” controversy concerning President Obama.
So, what distinguishes him as a Pop-Indie rather than a Mod-Indie or a typical conservative?
Firstly, like Bernie Sanders, Trump’s campaigns relied heavily on grassroots donations; during the first quarter of his 2020 campaign, a substantial 75% of his contributions came from donations under $200, a clear indicator of grassroots support. Additionally, Trump has consistently positioned himself as a leader of the anti-establishment movement within the right, both in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns and again in 2024.
While Trump lacks a traditional voting record, his campaign proposals offer insights into his Pop-Indie orientation. These proposals are generally centered around emphasizing an “America First” approach: a nationalistic reunification of traditional ideals.
Things like building a border wall to curb illegal immigration, imposing a travel ban from certain Muslim-majority countries, implementing tax cuts, and strengthening the military while seeking to end U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts and unfair trade agreements.
Trump’s Pop-Indie approach to policies has created divisions within the Republican party, much like how Bernie Sanders has influenced the Democratic party with its progressivism. Some argue that Mod-Indies on the right simply represent a moderate position within the Republican party. However, it’s also accurate to say that Trump’s populism has pushed the right towards more extreme positions on certain policies that would have otherwise enjoyed broader support from the electorate.
This explains why Mod-Indies rank lower in terms of their alignment with Trump’s positions: while they may not be as revolutionary as most Trump-aligned Pop-Indies, it’s also evident that they have indeed advocated for more extreme positions through the Trump years, even deviating from the party’s traditional stances observed during the Bush administration — particularly concerning foreign policy.
Following a pattern similar to Bernie Sanders, Trump garnered substantial support from young voters during the 2016 primaries. It’s worth noting that young people are the demographic most inclined to identify as Independent. However, this inclination doesn’t necessarily stem from a true “moderate” stance, as younger generations often exhibit more extreme political views compared to other age groups on both sides of the political spectrum.
This phenomenon could signify a prevailing Pop-Indie sentiment among young voters, or it might simply reflect their lesser concern for party affiliation compared to their focus on the specific policies advocated by any given party or candidate. Additionally, young voters have historically displayed lower turnout in elections (although rising quickly) making their lack of strong party allegiance less surprising.
Independent voting bloc is a diverse mix of ideologies, values, and levels of engagement. Some are extreme partisans, others are hardly interested. Even after categorizing them by their perceived alignment with the center, the task of reconciling their fundamentally different worldviews remains.
In my analysis, I distinguish between Pop-Indies, who reject the establishment and advocate for isolationism and revolutionary change, and Mod-Indies, moderate yet partisan and hawkish foreign policy advocates seeking incremental progress from within the system.
This schism makes it incredibly challenging for any national candidate to court an entire cohort of “Independent voters” effectively. Therefore, discussions and strategies for gaining Independent voters must be more nuanced, focusing on specific policy appeals rather than assuming a one-, two-, or even three-size-fits-all approach to this truly diverse electorate.
