The Age Equation: How Older Politicians Keep Winning Elections
What George Washington, Andrew Jackson, William Henry Harrison, James Buchanan, Woodrow Wilson, Ronald Reagan, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden all have in common: they were all “old” presidents.
I’ve never quite bought into the notion that the election of older individuals is inherently problematic, largely because the remedy seems clear: vote them out.
I’ve come to realize that this perspective primarily addresses the solution rather than assessing the underlying reasons for the trend.
While I maintain that voter turnout plays a significant role in electing older candidates, there are many factors contributing to this phenomenon; some of which are unrelated to voting while others closely align with the root causes of voter turnout.
Wealth
Wealth is a potent force in the political arena, often acting as a gravitational pull towards older candidates.
The correlation between age and affluence is striking, with those aged 65–74 emerging as the wealthiest demographic cohort with an average net worth of $1.75 million.
The 45–54 years old group are worth an average net worth of less than 1 million, dropping to around half a million in their late 30’s and early 40’s.
Financial resources can translate into political clout, enabling older individuals to finance campaigns, establish networks, and navigate the complexities of political elections with relative ease. The financial advantage enjoyed by older candidates serves as a formidable challenge to entry for younger aspirants.
Political Engagement
Political engagement and knowledge, or the lack thereof, further tilts the scales in favor of older politicians.
Surveys reveal a stark difference in the levels of political attentiveness across age groups, with older individuals exhibiting a greater propensity for following political news closely.
In a 2023 Gallup survey, 51% of U.S. adults aged 65 and older say they follow political news very closely, as do 40% of those between the ages of 50 and 64. Far fewer 30 to 49-year-olds (26%), and especially 18 to 29-year-olds (9%), are following politics very closely.
The implications of this are significant: a politically disinterested younger generation experiences a sense of exclusion from the political sphere, as older voters exert an outsized influence on electoral results and policy agendas.
With a deeper understanding of the issues and candidates, older voters are not only more inclined to participate in elections but also grasp the significance of their votes and see real results.
Historical Comparisons
Many people criticized George Washington, age 57 when assuming office, as being too old and senile in the 1790’s, as elucidated by his biographer Jonathan Horn. Nevertheless, Washington was younger upon his inauguration than the next six presidents.
Almost 200 years later, Ronald Reagan, the oldest president in history at the time, faced criticisms about his age and possible senility.
At the time of the American Civil War, the average life expectancy for men reaching the age of five was approximately 56. President Buchanan began his term at 65 years old, while Lincoln assumed office at 52 and Johnson at 56, thus making Buchanan the oldest president for nearly the following half-century. All of them would be considered relatively “old” for their era.
Before Trump and Biden, who hold the distinction of being the oldest presidents in history, Obama, Bush, and Clinton were elected, none of whom were even 55 years old upon assuming office.
In the last 50 years (including Reagan, Trump, and Biden — the oldest presidents in history), the average age of incoming presidents has been 60, while the average life expectancy has been 75. Contrastingly, in the first 50 years of our history, the average age of the presidents was 59, with a life expectancy of less than 50.
Although life expectancy has improved by over 25 years since the early 1800’s, there’s been only a small change from the average age of the presidents — less than one would expect.
It’s notable that for a considerable period, as just explained, the average president not only surpassed the age of the general population but often outlived the majority.
President Biden’s presidency marks a return to this trend after numerous decades, which indeed bears significance but not much more than Washington, Buchanan, or Reagan in their time.
Technological progress, including medical and healthcare advancements, along with greater overall wealth throughout the population, have significantly extended lifespans.
Aging Population
The median age of the U.S. population has reached unprecedented levels, soaring by over 10 years since 1970.
Birth rates in the U.S. are the lowest they have been in over a half-century. Other than a small uptick in 2020, rates have been steadily declining since 2007.
According to Axios, “The U.S. fertility rate in 2023 amounted to about 1.62 births per woman — well below the “replacement rate” of 2.1 that would allow a generation to completely replace itself.”
With declining birth rates, and baby boomers aging and maintaining high levels of electoral participation, it’s reasonable to anticipate a corresponding rise in the representation of this aging and politically active demographic among politicians.
Voting
Electoral dynamics, particularly voter turnout patterns, play a pivotal role in shaping the age composition of elected officials.
Statistics from the 2022 midterm election display a negative correlation between young voter turnout and the average age of elected representatives, particularly in swing states.
In states where youth showed up at the ballot box, the electoral landscape tends to skew toward younger, ideologically progressive candidates. However, such states often constitute exceptions rather than the rule, with the disengagement of young voters contributing to the perpetuation of status quo politics dominated by older cohorts.
Analysis of the thirteen states with the highest youth voter turnout, at or exceeding 25%, reveals that eleven of them sided with Joe Biden in the 2020 election, spanning key swing states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia.
The 65 years or older demographic constituted 30.4% of all voters compared to those aged 18 to 29 who comprised only 11.7% in the 2022 midterm elections.
According to AARP’s post-election poll, in the 63 most competitive races for the U.S. House of Representatives, 61% of ballots were cast by voters aged 50 and above, while only 39% were cast by voters aged 18 to 49.
Preferences
Nearly two-thirds of Americans express willingness to vote for someone over 70, a figure higher than those who would vote for an atheist candidate. Support drops for candidates over 80, a trend that could continue to shift with increasing lifespans, advancements in medical treatments, and an aging population.
Independents emerged as the least likely to support older candidates, possibly reflecting anti-establishment sentiment, voter disengagement, and youth skepticism — all of which are part of this group.
Despite this, over two-thirds of both Democrats and Republicans indicate readiness to vote for candidates over 70, with over half of Democrats willing to support those over 80.
This willingness likely stems partly from the context of the upcoming 2024 election featuring two presidential candidates nearing 80, but it also underscores voters’ readiness to back older candidates who align with their ideologies and stand a chance of winning.
While I understand experience is just another preference, it is a particularly cherished attribute in political leadership — conferring a distinct advantage upon older candidates.
A 2020 Monmouth University survey posed ten pairs of qualities and asked respondents to prioritize them in selecting a presidential candidate. When comparing résumé-related attributes, voters showed a preference for political experience over being a political outsider by over 20%.
Voters of color demonstrated a greater emphasis on experience over ideology, while Democrats and Pure Independents also placed considerable importance on both qualities.
Democrats, Independents, and voters of color all encompass a significant proportion of young people within their ranks, as the younger population tends to be more diverse racially and ethnically, and leans towards Democratic or Independent affiliations compared to older demographics; yet they maintain a willingness to vote for older candidates.
Time
Availability on election day and prolonged attention to political developments often favor older voters, who have more flexibility in their schedules and longer-standing engagement with political affairs compared to younger counterparts.
The Point
It’s insufficient to attribute all public concerns about politicians’ age to surface-level stereotypes. Rather, it’s essential to analyze what these perceptions signify: assumptions of incompetence, sluggishness, forgetfulness, fragility, and long-term unreliability.
Evaluating competence should be based on individual merit and demonstrated abilities rather than age alone. Blanket labeling of the entire age group as incompetent is both ageist and inaccurate. Historical figures such as Washington and Reagan exemplify the flaws in age-centric judgments of leadership effectiveness (see scores for each).
As explained, there are numerous reasons behind the prevalence of older individuals in elected positions. These insights aim to alleviate some of the political theatrics characterized by voters when witnessing politicians’ gaffes, verbal missteps, and rambling performances at rallies, particularly the two current presidential candidates.
While actually voting remains the means to alter this landscape in politics, it’s just one aspect contributing to its current state.
